Preparing for upheaval in North Korea: assuming North Korean regime collapse
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This thesis will attempt to provide the optimal policy prescription for the Republic of Korea (ROK) Army on how to disarm, demobilize and reintegrate (DDR) the North Korean people in the case of their regime collapse. It is important to know how the likelihood of environment in which post-conflict reconstruction efforts will be implemented. The viability of any contingency plan should be assessed, based on an assumption about the environment being in probable upheaval. However, little analysis of the viability of the contingency plan, including the DDR program, has been undertaken in the context of North Korean regime collapse. Especially, the research about expectations and assumptions related to the possible North Korean attitude and probable post-regime collapse environment has been rare. The contingency planning, thus, needs further research and empirical supporting data, which can enhance its viability in practice. Given this perspective, this thesis attempts to predict the North Korean peoples possible attitude in their upheaval, based on analysis about the current regimes control system and recent changes. This thesis also assumes different scenarios in which DDR would be implemented to reconstruct a post-conflict society, by differentiating critical uncertainties in each case.
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