Fuzzy comprehensive evaluation (FCE) in military decision support processes

Abstract

The United States has a tradition of military analysis using a federated or combined suite of models. However, these are not the only methods of modeling military problems. We consider the application and implications of foreign modeling approaches. The particular alternate technique we focus on is fuzzy comprehensive evaluation (FCE). FCE makes use of fuzzy mathematics, alone and in partnership with Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) models, to inform strategic and operational decisions. It is designed to aid leaders in capturing the complicated and sometimes fuzzy nature of multi-criteria decision problems through human knowledge and evaluations. These subjective inputs present criticisms regarding FCE solutions. FCE results are only as valid as the consistency of the subject matter experts opinions. Therefore, this thesis analyzes the FCE approach through a case study and evaluates the implications of FCE results when there is high variance in expert opinions.