Interval-based simulation to model input uncertainty in stochastic Lanchester models
MetadataShow full item record
Interval-based simulation (IBS) has been proposed to model input uncertainty in discrete-event simulation. The foundation of this new simulation paradigm is imprecise probability, which models systems under both aleatory and epistemic uncertainties. The statistical distribution parameters in IBS are represented by intervals instead of precise real numbers. This paper discusses how the IBS approach can be applied to stochastic Lanchester models that are used in combat simulation to better account for input parameter uncertainty. The advantages of this approach are explored in comparison with second-order Monte Carlo simulation. Using IBS, an improved estimate of the probability of a team winning a battle is calculated by taking advantage of the interval structure. By resampling from intervals to determine event times, we can separate the effect of parameters uncertainty from random number generator uncertainty to estimate the probability that one team will win for given stream of random numbers used in a signle replication. Additionally, we show how our method can be used to improve the reliability of stochastic Lanchester results by accounting for different skill levels within each team, and show how the interval structure can be used to highlight the disproportionate effect of the first encounters in the battle.
The article of record as published may be found at http://dx.doi.org/10.5711/1082598318161
RightsThis publication is a work of the U.S. Government as defined in Title 17, United States Code, Section 101. Copyright protection is not available for this work in the United States.
Showing items related by title, author, creator and subject.
Hanlon, Peter E. (Monterey, California. Naval Postgraduate School, 2000);Uncertainty exists in retirement planning. The purpose of this thesis was to develop a stochastic retirement planning model to aid military personnel and decision/policy makers in evaluating retirement planning issues from ...
Posadas, Sergio. (Monterey, California. Naval Postgraduate School, 2001);This thesis develops a stochastic representation of a tactical commanderâ s decision cycle and applies the model within the high-resolution combat simulation: Combined Arms Analysis Tool for the 21st Century (Combat XXI). ...
An Investigation of Finite Sample Behavior of Confidence Interval Estimation Procedures in Computer Simulation Sargent, Robert G.; Goldsman, David; Kang, Keebom (Monterey, California. Naval Postgraduate School, 1991); NPS-AS-91-009Investigated are the small sample behavior and convergence properties of confidence interval estimators (CIE's) for the mean of a stationary discrete process. We consider CIE's arising from nonoverlapping batch means, ...