How to assess the value of critical infrastructure
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We present a new paradigm for evaluating critical infrastructure that assesses the function of an infrastructure system as a whole, rather than some enumeration of the vulnerability, risk, economic replacement cost, size, or connectivity of each of its components. Indeed, we hold that we can only discover the value of a set of components if we model the function of the entire infrastructure systems both with and without the function of that set. Our results call into question several currently fashionable methods of risk analysis. For instance, probabilistic risk analysis was designed to model Mother Nature, but now is used to treat terrorists as dice-throwers, rather than intelligent goal-seeking decision makers, and replaces their intelligence with probabilities that subject matter experts guess. Using optimization-based models of system function, we identify the worst-case disruptions to the intelligent operation of a system. We show how to answer rigorously the questions "which parts of an infrastructure are critical," and "how should we allocate limited defensive resources in order to minimize worst-case disruptions?"
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How to assess the value of critical infrastructure: a worst-case view of risk and its implications for optimizing protection Alderson, David; Brown, Gerald; Carlyle, Matthew (2009-06-01);We show how to answer rigorously the questions "which parts of an infrastructure are critical" and "how should we allocate defensive resources in order to minimize worst-case disruptions?" We model the function and ...
Alderson, David L.; Brown, Gerald G.; Carlyle, W. Matthew (Society for Risk Analysis, 2015);We propose a definition of infrastructure resilience that is tied to the operation (or function) of an infrastructure as a system of interacting components and that can be objectively evaluated using quantitative models. ...
Alderson, David (Monterey, California: Naval Postgraduate School, 2015-04-17);In this talk, I will describe recent work in the NPS Center for Infrastructure Defense to assess and improve the operational resilience of critical energy infrastructure systems to either deliberate threats (e.g., attacks, ...