Thermospheric modeling accuracies using F10.7 & Ap
Adler, John J.
Ross, I. Michael
Olsen, Richard Christopher
MetadataShow full item record
This thesis analyzes the accuracy of the 45 day forecasted F10.7 and Ap values given by the Air Force Space Forecast Center. These forecasts are generated daily to aid many agencies in their fields of endeavor. The U.S. Space Command uses the values in orbit prediction routines by way of atmospheric density models. This thesis shows that the F10.7 forecasts are accurate from one to seven days out, then deteriorate for the latter 38 days. Conversely, Ap forecasts are less accurate from one to five days out, then improve beyond the sixth day. The effects of forecasting errors upon satellite lifetimes are then shown using the Lifetime 4.1 orbital propagation model with a Jacchia '71 atmosphere. Propagating a typical satellite for 45 days over various configurations of altitudes and eccentricities showed that only a narrow altitude band from 250km to 325km is affected. Regions above or below this band are not significantly affected with errors in F10.7 or Ap.
Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited.
Showing items related by title, author, creator and subject.
Regnier, Eva; Harr, Patrick A. (2006-10);The decision to prepare for an oncoming hurricane is typically framed as a static cost:loss problem, based on a strike-probability forecast. The value of waiting for updated forecasts is therefore neglected. In this paper, ...
Comparison of Fleet Numerical Weather Central acoustic forecast system and the Integrated Carrier Acoustic Prediction System (ICAPS) Fitzgerald, Timothy James (1974-03);The Naval Oceanographic Office developed the Integrated Carrier Acoustic Prediction System (ICAPS) in order to perform on-scene acoustic forecasts for the Fleet. To evaluate the system, bathythermographic information was ...
Evaluation of the AFWA WRF 4-km moving nest model predictions for Western North Pacific tropical cyclones Ryerson, William R. (Monterey California. Naval Postgraduate School, 2006-03);The Air Force Weather Agency (AFWA) version of the Advanced Research Weather Research and Forecasting (ARW) model with a moving 4-km nested grid is examined for 10 track and intensity predictions of six western North ...