Forecasting VSI/SSB take-rates for enlisted Marine Corps personnel
Noblit, Mark L.
Mehay, Stephen L.
Eitelberg, Mark J.
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This thesis involves the development of multivariate to estimate probabilities that enlisted Marines take the Voluntary Separation Incentive/ Special Separation Benefits (VSI/SSB) program, and also to forecast the distribution of takers between the VSI and the SSB. The data were obtained from the Headquarters Marine Corps enlisted master file which includes demographic and military background information on all Marines who were eligible for the VSI/SSB between 15 January and 30 June 1992. The theory of labor supply and occupational choice provides the theoretical framework for the model. The probability of taking the program is modeled as a function of military compensation, expected civilian earnings, and other non-pecuniary factors. Logit regression equations are applied to develop best fit equation that predict the probability that a Marine takes the VSI/SSB, and the probability that a program taker will choose the SSB. Empirical results indicate that paygrade and military occupation are the most important factors in predicting the probability of taking the VSI/SSB. Gender, race, job assignment, location, time-in-grade, promotion rate, and the number of years until the end of the active service had significant but smaller effects on predicted probabilities. Lower paygrades, no college education, less time-in-grade, and a faster promotion rate are factors that increase the probability that a Marine chooses the SSB.
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