Missioning with minimal Delayed Entry Program (DEP) loss
Burris, Bryan D.
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This thesis addresses the missioning problem which is to determine the number of individuals to be recruited or contracted each month by Army recruiters. After signing the contracts, these individuals are enrolled in the Delayed Entry Program (DEP) prior to their basic training. During DEP, some individuals may renege on their contracts, thus becoming DEP losses. Although DEP is costly, it is necessary since it acts as an inventory of recruits to smooth out the training loads at boot camps and allows the Army to perform a background check for each recruit. The missioning problem is formulated as a linear program that minimizes the expected DEP loss subject to requirements imposed by the Deputy Chief of Staff for Personnel (DCSPER) and U.S. Army Recruiting Command (USAREC). Integral to the formulation are the estimates of DEP loss probabilities for various combinations of recruit categories and DEP durations. The estimates are based on a Binomial assumption and Isotonic regression. The linear programming model of the missioning problem is implemented in GAMS and provides results indicating that DEP loss can be reduced from the current level of 11.46% to 8.59%. This translates to nearly $11 million saving annually. Other applications of the model are also provided.
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