An analytical approach to assessing the vulnerability of bomb shelters to aerial bombing and artillery attack
Yeo, Gim Koon.
Esary, James Daniel
Lindsay, G. F.
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This study examines the vulnerability of bomb shelters to aerial bombing and artillery attack, by modelling the bomb dump, i.e., the area within which the bomb shelters are located, as a cellular target. The stochastic process of hitting the dump with aerial bombs or artillery shells is modelled using suitable probability distributions, depending on the scenarios. Two measures of effectiveness are used: (1) The expected proportion of damage to the bomb dump by n weapons (bombs or shells) that are directed at the bomb dump, and (2) The probability that the ith shelter will be damaged due to an attack by n weapons that are directed at the bomb dump. A generalized shelter hardness and vulnerability model is derived. Conditions under which shelter probability of kill and dump expected proportion of damage coincide and are independent of the relative shelter values are discussed. The effectiveness of various defender's and attacker's strategies is considered.
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