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dc.contributor.advisorLin, Kyle Y.
dc.contributor.authorWann, Shian-Kuen
dc.date.accessioned2012-03-14T17:40:09Z
dc.date.available2012-03-14T17:40:09Z
dc.date.issued2008-06
dc.descriptionApproved for public release, distribution unlimiteden_US
dc.description.abstractSince the end of cold war, predicting a nation state's instability has been a challenging national security issue for the United States. This thesis presents several methods to predict the conflict potential for failed nation states by comparing their social, economic, political, and military statistics with those in the past. This study uses the Brier scoring rule to evaluate the performances of these probability prediction methods. The study provides insights into situations where one method expects to outperform the others.en_US
dc.description.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/10945/4029
dc.format.extent47 p. : ill. ;en_US
dc.publisherMonterey California. Naval Postgraduate Schoolen_US
dc.subject.lcshNational securityen_US
dc.subject.lcshUnited Statesen_US
dc.subject.lcshStatistical methodsen_US
dc.subject.lcshPolitical stabilityen_US
dc.subject.lcshForecastingen_US
dc.subject.lcshNation-stateen_US
dc.titleProbability prediction of a nation's internal conflict based on instabilityen_US
dc.typeThesisen_US
dc.contributor.secondreaderShen, Yu-Chu
dc.contributor.corporateNaval Postgraduate School (U.S.)
dc.contributor.departmentOperations Research
dc.description.serviceRepublic of China (Taiwan) Army author.en_US
dc.identifier.oclc245042573
etd.thesisdegree.nameM.S.en_US
etd.thesisdegree.levelMastersen_US
etd.thesisdegree.grantorNaval Postgraduate Schoolen_US


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