Numerical simulation investigations in weapon delivery probabilities

Abstract

The study of weapon delivery probabilities has historically been focused around analytical solutions and approximations for weapon delivery accuracy and effectiveness calculations. With the relatively recent increase in modern computing power many of the historical expressions can be simulated quickly with similar or more accurate results than the historical expressions and approximations. In this thesis simulation methods are used to evaluate weapon delivery probability parameters including circular error probable, range and deflection error probable, and weapon effectiveness in the single and salvo weapon scenarios. Comparisons of the simulation results and corresponding historical practices are made to validate simulation techniques. Additionally, standard deviations in the range and deflection direction are extracted from weapon impact data. Using these extracted standard deviations weapon effectiveness, calculations are performed.