Optimal End-Game Strategy in Basketball
Abstract
When faced with protecting a three-point lead in the waning seconds of a basketball game,
which is a preferable strategy: playing defense or fouling the offense before they can attempt
a game-tying shot? Gonzaga University head coach, Mark Few, was faced with such a decision
against Michigan State in the semi-finals of the Maui Invitational (November 22, 2005) and elected
to play defense. The strategy backfired, as Michigan State’s Maurice Ager made a three-point
basket at the buzzer to force overtime. (Gonzaga eventually won in triple overtime.) Was this
failure to hold the lead at the end of regulation bad luck or bad strategy? Put another way, which
strategy (conventional defense or intentionally fouling) maximizes the defensive team’s chances
of winning the game? Drawing on the Gonzaga/Michigan State game for inspiration, this paper
addresses this question and concludes that, contrary to popular belief, intentionally fouling is
preferable to playing tight defense.
Description
An Article Submitted to Journal of Quantitative Analysis in
Sports, Manuscript 1030
Rights
This publication is a work of the U.S. Government as defined in Title 17, United States Code, Section 101. Copyright protection is not available for this work in the United States.Collections
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