Sustaining Economic Expansion in Pakistan in an Era of Energy Shortfalls: Growth Options to 2035

Abstract

Pakistan’s recent economic acceleration together with rapid rates of population growth is having a significant impact on the country’s energy supply/demand balances. Energy supplies in turn affect the pace and pattern of the country’s economic expansion. Drawing on the empirically-based complex links between energy and the economy, several alternative scenarios of growth and energy needs are developed in an attempt to answer several key questions. In particular, what are some of the key interrelationships between sources of energy demand and supply? What are the economic growth consequences of alternative energy availabilities and, in turn, how do these growth patterns affect the subsequent energy supply and demand patterns? What energy strategies are suggested by the interconnection between the country growth requirements and energy needs? Are these significantly modified under rising or falling energy prices? Based on this analysis, several guidelines are drawn for the country’s future energy policy.