Analysis of analytic models for the effect of Insurgency/Counterinsurgency Operations on the general population
Damalas, Kimberly A.
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This thesis proposes and analyzes mathematical descriptive models of the effect of Insurgency/Counterinsurgency Operations on the population of a nation experiencing stability operations. The model is a system of differential equations representing insurgent activity, insurgent recruiting, insurgent removal by the coalition; the population's tolerance for insurgent violence; occurrence of actions by the coalition and insurgency the population perceives as beneficial and damaging, and the resulting change in the population's support for the government. The study focuses on a single population, attempting to identify and model the first order effects of stability force actions on the population. We represent and study the effect of possible strategies by local government and external stability forces to influence popular support toward the government. We find the greatest increase in popular support occurs when the coalition concentrates on performing actions perceived by the population as beneficial and mitigating the effects of its damaging actions. When the population does not perceive insurgent actions as damaging, we find the coalition has difficulty increasing popular support for the government. Coalition cooperation with local leaders in planning and executing beneficial actions may increase the perceived effect of coalition actions the population perceives as beneficial.
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Atkinson, Michael P.; Kress, Moshe; Szechtman, Roberto (2012-03-21);We formulate a rational choice model of popular behavior during an insurgency. An individual in the population either supports the insurgents or the government depending upon his attitude and the actions taken by each ...
Metzger, Mark D. (Monterey, California: Naval Postgraduate School, 2009-06);Victory in irregular war and insurgency is not simply a matter of combat actions and civic aid; it is a matter of population mobilization. Winning the sympathy of the population will do little good for either the state ...
Buying hearts and minds: modeling popular support during an insurgency via a sequential vote-buying game Yildiz, Baris (Monterey, California. Naval Postgraduate School, 2011-06);The population plays a crucial role in the outcome of an insurgency. The government needs intelligence from the population to effectively target and defeat the insurgents. In this thesis, we adapt a vote-buying model from ...