An analysis of port-visit costs of U.S. Navy aircraft carriers
Adams, Jason W.
Koyak, Robert A.
Nussbaum, Daniel A.
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The United States Navy is seeking substantial cost savings in the operation of its aircraft carrier fleet, including the costs of port visits. This thesis analyzes data on aircraft carrier port visits from fiscal years 2002 through 2007 to develop statistical models for characterizing and predicting port-visit costs. The models account for explanatory factors that include the ship and port, whether the ship is moored pier side or at anchor, length of the port visit, and the arrival date. A total of 13 U.S. Navy Carrier Vessel (CV) and Carrier Vessel Nuclear (CVN) aircraft carriers made 118 visits to ports in 25 countries during the period under study. For each port visit, individual lineitem expenses are aggregated into four categories and by total cost. Regression modeling is then used to identify factors that explain these categorized and total costs. For total costs, the average regression prediction error is about 17 percent. Costs are found to vary across ships and, more substantially, across ports. These findings can be used in the formulation of initiatives aimed at reducing the costs of aircraft carrier port visits. An automated spreadsheet tool is developed to implement the model1ing techniques presented in the thesis.
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