Defensive democratization in Jordan
Abstract
Jordan's political-liberalization program, initiated in 1989, represents the longest sustained
such opening in the Arab world today. During this time, Jordan has held three
national parliamentary elections, enacted a number of liberalizing laws, removed
many restrictions on the press, and minimized the role that the security services, or
mukhdbarit, play in repressing opposition. Moreover, the liberalization program has
survived a number of severe challenges, including the second Gulf War and the
subsequent loss of Jordan's major regional trading partner, Iraq; the implementation
of a difficult domestic austerity program; and the conclusion of a controversial peace
treaty with Israel.
Democratization in Jordan has not followed the same path as the recent democratic
transitions in East Asia, Latin America, and Eastern Europe. By closely examining
Jordan's program of political liberalization' since 1989, I will argue that the process
is best understood as a series of pre-emptive measures designed to maintain elite
privilege in Jordan while limiting the appeal of more fundamental political change.
The regime has skillfully managed and directed a process that has throughout protected
the four pillars of power in Jordan: the monarchy and its coterie, the army and
security services, wealthy business elites, and East Bank tribal leaders. It has simultaneously
sought to undermine the only social force legally able to disrupt key regime
policies, the Islamist Muslim Brotherhood, and its political party, the Islamic
Action Front (IAF).
In other words, uncertain about its ability to survive a deepening crisis, the regime
undertook sufficient reform to assure its political longevity, but without altering the
core structures of power in Jordan. I term this "defensive democratization." The concept
of defensive democratization provides an additional nuance to our understanding
of democratic transitions more generally by focusing attention on pre-emptive
liberalizing strategies available to rentier states.
This essay concludes by arguing that the strategy of defensive democratization in
Jordan may not be able to withstand the likely political volatility in, and Islamization
of, Palestinian politics in Jordan. Ironically, what may pose the greatest threat
to the democratic transition in Jordan is peace, with the sorts of demographic and
political challenges the 1994 agreement with Israel has unleashed. Indeed, contrary
to the optimistic forecasts found in many of the recent works on civil society, the end of the Arab-Israeli conflict may well usher in a new era of authoritarianism in
Jordan-and elsewhere in the Arab world.
Rights
This publication is a work of the U.S. Government as defined in Title 17, United States Code, Section 101. Copyright protection is not available for this work in the United States.Collections
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