Predicting significant factors of Selective Marine Corps Reserve Marine’s career decisions in response to the Force Structure Review review

Abstract

Significant variables contributed to a Selective Marine Corps Reserve Marine's career decision when faced with changes initiated by the Force Structure Review Group (FSRG). This thesis identifies those variables using research conducted in response to recent Secretary of Navy and Marine Corps research initiatives. A narrative captures the development and roles of the personnel transition team concept created by Marine Forces Reserves in response to changes resulting from the FSRG. Additionally, a decision probability model is developed to estimate Marines' decisions during changes similar to those outlined in the FSRG. The data set consists of 4,170 Marines separated into three categories based on contractual obligations and location in respect to reserve sites. Nine logistic regression models estimated the effects of independent variables on a Marine's decision to transfer, interunit transfer, or stay. The findings conclude that military occupational specialty, location, performance, rank, age, deployments, and race all significantly affect a Marine's decision. The decision probability model uses the logistic regression models to estimate Marines' decisions for future events similar to the FSRG. It provides a critical tool that will help planning and execution for future changes.