Modeling incremental initial active duty continuation probabilities in the Selected Marine Corps Reserve
Dinsdale, Alan C.
Seagren, Chad W.
Hatch, William D.
Licari, Anthony D.
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This thesis examines continuation behavior between two sub-populations of non-prior service (NPS) members of the Selected Marine Corps Reserve (SMCR). The research evaluates differences in continuation based on affiliation with the Incremental Initial Active Duty Training (IIADT) program by analyzing data from the time period covering fiscal years (FY) 2002 through 2012. The analysis uses TFDW data for NPS accessions into the SMCR. This research analyzes differences in attainment of annual benchmarks as a means for identifying differences in the subpopulations. The analysis was performed using multivariate logistic regression for identified annual milestones from 12 to 72 months of time in service. Explanatory variables include IIADT affiliation, demographics, education, geographic region, aptitude, military occupational specialty, military performance, and FY. IIADT program affiliation was found to have differing effects on the probability of continuation to annual milestones. After a positive effect on continuation to 12 months, IIADT affiliation is associated with a negative effect in continuation probability through 48 months. At the 60 month point, differences between IIADT Marines and those not affiliated with IIADT are not statistically significant. We recommend further research to quantify the presumed benefits of the IIADT program.
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