United States Marine Corps career designation board: significant factors in predicting selection
Garza, Raul P.
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The United State Marine Corps (USMC) re-implemented the competitive Career Designation (CD) board starting in FY 2010 to select and retain the most competitive junior officers. From 2010 to 2013, 4,723 out of 6,732 officers were offered CD. Utilizing a Probit model and the dataset of the 6,732 officers, we provide statistical analysis of what factors impact the officer's likelihood of being CD in each of the competitive subcategories of: combat arms, combat service support, aviation-ground, law, and aviation. We find that Reviewing Officer Relative Value Average is the most significant factor for most of the officers, as it increases the marginal probability of being CD by an average of 60 percentage points. Surprisingly, combat deployments were not consistently significant throughout the competitive categories. Finally, we develop an Excel-based interactive CD counseling tool, which provides the probability of the officer being CD, given the officer's individual characteristics.
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