A Markov model for forecasting inventory levels for Navy Medical Service Corps healthcare administrators
Seagren, Chad W.
MetadataShow full item record
The United States Navy Medical Service Corps is a diverse group of healthcare professionals that functions as a support community, providing administrative and clinical services as an integral part of Navy Medicine. There are currently more than 3,000 active and reserve Medical Service Corps officers serving around the globe, approximately 40 percent of whom are healthcare administrators. This thesis develops a Markov model to estimate the number of HCA accessions necessary to meet inventory requirements from FY14 to FY18. The general HCA model validation and analysis show that aggregate annual transition rates pass the stationary assumption required of Markov models. Models the study develops for some subspecialties perform better than others and are consistent and accurate. Consistency and accuracy are important because budget planners and recruiting command rely on manpower estimates during the fiscal year. These results suggest that the Markov model is a useful tool for HCA community managers to forecast inventory levels across rank and subspecialties, and is effective for determining force structure. Determining the end strength of HCA officers is an important part of the accession planning process for manpower planners to balance the force structure to effectively minimize deviation from target inventory levels that impact training and labor costs, as well as to manage career progression.
Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited.
Showing items related by title, author, creator and subject.
Brill, Edward A. (Monterey, California. Naval Postgraduate School, 1972-07); NPS55Zg72071AThe paper discusses the problem of planning the allocation of sewage treatment systems to the Naval Fleet. It is assumed that the obsolescence or deterioration process of a ship is a semi-Markov process. For the special ...
Duke, John R. (Monterey, California. Naval Postgraduate School, 1996-06);This thesis presents a Markov model for analyzing the sensitivity of Crusader effectiveness to parametric changes in Crusader capabilities. Crusader activities are represented as finite-state, discrete-time Markov chains. ...
Determining personnel accession requirements for Medical Service Corps Health Care Administrators using a steady-state analysis Vogel, Vance T. (Monterey, California. Naval Postgraduate School, 2006-03);A Markov model was used to determine the optimal number of Medical Service Corps Health Care Administrator officers the Navy must access each year in order to maintain a desired end-strength. The Markov model identified ...