Marine Corps Contract Supply Model for high quality male enlistment contracts at the recruiting sub station level
Welsh, Brian K.
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The goal of this study was to provide Marine Corps manpower planners a more reliable tool for forecasting enlistment supply at the local market level. This research develops contract production models at the Recruiting Sub Station level to estimate the effects of local economic conditions, demographics, and recruiting resources on new high quality male contract production. Focusing the analysis on the sub station level allows the impact of recruiting resources to be more accurately predicted and enables a more efficient allocation of resources. The supply models used pooled time series-cross sectional data from FY03 to FY07, which provided 10,702 observations for estimation. The contract supply model was specified as a log-log functional form. The results found that Marine recruiters are the most significant predictor of new contract production. Additionally, other DoD recruiters were estimated to be positively related to Marine Corps new contract production, suggesting complimentary recruitment efforts. Finally, both the local unemployment rate and the military-civilian pay ratio were positively associated with contract production, but the estimated effects were not always statistically significant.
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