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dc.contributor.advisorMurphree, Tom
dc.contributor.advisorSmarsh, David
dc.contributor.authorTournay, Robert C.
dc.date.accessioned2012-03-14T17:40:52Z
dc.date.available2012-03-14T17:40:52Z
dc.date.issued2008-03
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/10945/4161
dc.description.abstractWe examined long-range statistical forecasting methods for Korean summer precipitation (KSP). We reviewed existing literature on the East Asian summer monsoon to develop a background on current KSP research and on the relationship of KSP to climate variations. Second, we explored interannual variability of KSP using composite and correlation analyses. We found that circulation anomalies in the spring prior to the monsoon in the tropical northwest Pacific alter sea surface temperatures (SST). These SST anomalies then persist into the following summer, leading to summer circulation anomalies that alter the flow into Korea and the precipitation on the seasonal scale. From this relationship, we developed a seasonal forecasting index. Third, we looked at KSP on the intraseasonal scale, to develop statistical forecast methods with five to thirty day leadtimes. We found that the Korean summer monsoon onset, break and withdrawal are positively correlated to the El NinÌ o / La NinÌ a state. We found that the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO), when conditioned with our seasonal index, showed skill in forecasting with lead times out to 20 days. Last, we found that tropical cyclone activity in Korea is impacted by ENSO on the interannual scale, and MJO on the intraseasonal scale.en_US
dc.description.urihttp://archive.org/details/longrangestatist109454161
dc.format.extent121 p. : ill. (some col., some maps) ;en_US
dc.publisherMonterey, California. Naval Postgraduate Schoolen_US
dc.subject.lcshMonsoonsen_US
dc.subject.lcshKoreaen_US
dc.subject.lcshPrecipitation forecastingen_US
dc.subject.lcshEast Asiaen_US
dc.titleLong-range statistical forecasting of Korean summer precipitationen_US
dc.typeThesisen_US
dc.contributor.secondreaderWang, Zhuo
dc.contributor.corporateNaval Postgraduate School (U.S.)
dc.description.serviceUS Air Force (USAF) author.en_US
dc.identifier.oclc228820795
etd.thesisdegree.nameM.S.en_US
etd.thesisdegree.levelMastersen_US
etd.thesisdegree.disciplineMeteorologyen_US
etd.thesisdegree.grantorNaval Postgraduate Schoolen_US
etd.verifiednoen_US
dc.description.distributionstatementApproved for public release; distribution is unlimited.


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