An analysis of performance at the basic school as a predictor of officer performance in the operating forces

Abstract

The purpose of this thesis is to identify and assess factors that predict the performance of junior officers in the operating forces of the U.S. Marine Corps. In this analysis, fitness report scores are used as indicators of performance. We concentrate on the effect of performance at The Basic School (TBS) and other demographic characteristics on fitness report scores. The data used in this analysis includes information on all officers who were newly commissioned between 1998 and 2005, TBS performance data for these same cohorts, and fitness report data for TBS graduates. The results of this analysis find that several factors predict officer performance as indicated by fitness report scores. All aspects of TBS performance are important in predicting future success. However, we find that leadership scores at TBS have the strongest impact on performance in the operating forces. Also, officers who are prior enlisted, married, or female have higher fitness report scores, whereas blacks have lower scores. We also find that officers who finish TBS in the top third of their TBS company receive higher average fitness report scores than officers who finish in the middle third; conversely, officers in the bottom third of their TBS class receive lower fitness report scores than those in the middle third. Lastly, we find that whether officers receive their preferred MOS assignment has little effect on their performance as a junior officer.