Real World Nuclear Decision Making: Using Behavioral Economics Insights to Adjust Nonproliferation and Deterrence Policies to Predictable Deviations from Rationality

Abstract

Research in neuroscience and related branches of psychology has begun to influence social science disciplines, most notably through the rise of the “behavioral economics” perspective. Behavioral economics has clear applications to nuclear strategy and other policies that deal with WMD threats. The Monterey Institute will draw out the implications of this research—and in particular the critique of rational actor assumptions—to improve our understanding of nuclear deterrence and nonproliferation policies. The research is organized in two strands: 1) psychology and decision-making; and 2) neuroscience and emotions.