Simplifying decision making: a practical framework
Chaudhry, Muhammad Shirjeel Riaz
Sidek, Mohmad Safhree
Strawser, Bradley J.
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This thesis proposes a decision-making model based on PESTEL (Political, Economic, Social, Technological, Environmental, and Legal) analysis, AHP (Analytical Hierarchical Process), and game theory. The case study used to demonstrate the concept is a 2013 Malaysian crisis wherein foreign intruders occupied a village in Sabah state. The Malaysian government, ultimately, launched a military operation to clear the area. The focus of our study is the decision-making processes of the two rational actors in this case—the Malaysian Prime Minister and the Sultan of Sulu. Game theory and AHP provided structured framework for investigation, particularly in subjective assessment. Each player is assessed by a particular set of criteria independent from the other’s criteria. To support these tools, we analyze available literature to formulate PESTEL attributes, which could affect both parties’ payoffs in the construct. The combined application of these tools—PESTEL analysis, AHP, and game theory—demonstrates how they mitigate each other’s weaknesses. The utility of this model is twofold: (1) it makes the analysis of decisions taken in the past more insightful; and (2) it provides a framework for choosing the optimal course of action when making a decision.
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