Global model forecasts of 2005 Atlantic tropical cyclone formations after post-processing to account for initial intensity
Chesser, Stephen G.
Elsberry, Russell L.
Boothe, Mark A.
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The objective of this thesis was to test the impact on Atlantic tropical cyclone formation forecasts during 2005 by three global models via a post-processing technique of adjusting the initial conditions to match the National Hurricane Center initial intensity information contained in the Combined Automated Response to Query (CARQ). Histograms of model analyses of the 850 - 500 mb relative vorticity and the 700 - 500 mb warm core, which are derived from the VORTRACK files, are created for CARQ intensities of 20 kt, 25 kt, 30 kt, and 35 kt, and then are used to derive Lower Tercile Values (LTVs). These LTVs of relative vorticity and warm core for each model are used to adjust the initial conditions to agree with the CARQ intensity, and the LTV35 is considered to be the threshold intensity value for formation. These adjusted model forecasts are all superior to the unadjusted forecasts because many of the false alarms are eliminated. The adjusted model forecasts of relative vorticity and warm core are also converted into equivalent intensity forecasts, and a consensus of these intensities provides a useful indication of the evolution of an incipient tropical disturbance toward the tropical storm stage.
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