Assessing the operational robustness of the HOMER model for Marine Corps use in expeditionary environments
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Authors
Morse, Matthew M.
Subjects
micropower system
solar irradiance
inter-annual variability
simulation
design of experiments
deterministic model
solar irradiance
inter-annual variability
simulation
design of experiments
deterministic model
Advisors
Nussbaum, Daniel
Paulo, Eugene
Date of Issue
2014-06
Date
June 2014
Publisher
Monterey, California: Naval Postgraduate School
Language
Abstract
As the Marine Corps pursues greater energy efficiency in expeditionary operations, the HOMER micropower optimization model provides potential to serve as a powerful tool for improving Marine Corps power planning. The HOMER software was developed for the modeling and simulation of micropower systems over long periods of time. Although a deterministic model, HOMER uses stochastic input data, specifically solar irradiance, temperature, and load profiles. HOMER simulation fidelity is therefore affected by the inter-annual variability of these profiles. This research quantifies HOMER robustness with regard to solar irradiance and tem-perature profile variability through full-factorial experimental designs. The effect of shortening HOMER simulation duration on the variability of HOMER simulation outputs is also investigated, and though statistically significant, the resulting increase in variability is not large enough to preclude the use of HOMER for expeditionary operations. This thesis also demonstrates how HOMER can assist in developing power planning doctrine, showing that the fuel consumption benefits of using multiple generators of different sizes is no longer present once a renewable energy asset is added to the micropower system. This analysis of HOMER’s robustness and operational potential provides insight for improving the Marine Corps’ use of HOMER for power planning in an expeditionary environment.
Type
Thesis
Description
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Department
Computer Science
Organization
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NPS Report Number
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Distribution Statement
Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited.
Rights
This publication is a work of the U.S. Government as defined in Title 17, United States Code, Section 101. Copyright protection is not available for this work in the United States.