Financial ratio time series models in defense industries
Loading...
Authors
Jenkins, James D.
Subjects
NA
Advisors
Moses, O. Douglas
Liao, Shu S.
Date of Issue
1994-12
Date
December 1994
Publisher
Monterey, California. Naval Postgraduate School
Language
en_US
Abstract
This thesis examines the forecasting ability of financial ratio time series models as applied to defense industry firms. Using previously developed descriptive models of financial ratio time series behavior, this thesis identifies plausible financial ratio forecasting models. The ability of seven different models to predict future values of financial ratios is then tested with data from defense industry firms. The results are used to answer questions concerning the accuracy and bias of forecasts and the appropriate applications of specific forecasting models. The thesis concludes that the ability of time series models to forecast future values for financial ratios depends on the specific ratio being forecast, and that the simplest model, a random walk model, is among the most useful for forecasting.
Type
Thesis
Description
Series/Report No
Department
Organization
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.)
Identifiers
NPS Report Number
Sponsors
Funder
Format
83 p.
Citation
Distribution Statement
Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited.
Rights
This publication is a work of the U.S. Government as defined in Title 17, United States Code, Section 101. Copyright protection is not available for this work in the United States.