The effect of graduate education on promotion of U.S. Army field grade officer by career field
Chae, Chang Kyu
Hill, Kim D.
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The purpose of this study is to estimate the effect of graduate education on the promotion of a U.S. Army field grade officer. In addition, this thesis investigates whether or not there are significant differences among career fields of the Officers Personnel Management System. To do so, a probit model and three correction models are built. The first correction model uses the Heckit method to correct for sample selection bias. The second model uses the instrumental variable regression method to correct for endogeneity of graduate education. The third model uses the double selection approach that combines the Heckit correction with two stage least squares to correct for both sample selection bias and endogeneity. The probit estimations indicate that the effect of graduate education for a representative officer increase the promotion probabilities by 0.148 and 0.132 for the grades of Lieutenant Colonel and Colonel, respectively. After correcting for sample selection bias, the effect of graduate education on the promotion to Lieutenant Colonel is reduced by 59.5 percent. After correction for endogeneity, this effect is increased by 70.9 percent. Finally, this effect increases by 61.5 percent after correction for both sample selection bias and endogeneity.
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