The Small Theater Level Model: an extension of FTLM
Nelson, Thomas A.
Parry, Samuel H.
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This study outlines the design, implementation, and testing of the Small Theater Level Model (STLM). The purpose of this research was the first in a sequence of efforts to determine if the course of action perception methodologies of the Future Theater Level model (FfLM) could be used in the small theater. Currently, there are no other models that have the capability to provide the small theater commander with perceptions of the enemy's intent. Additional modifications were made to FfLM in order to more accurately portray small theater operations: the addition of a range dependent attrition algorithm, high resolution of aviation assets conducting sensor observations, and the ability to provide a dynamically employable reserve force into the battle. Testing of the model was based on the development of a scenario similar to battles fought at the U.S. Army's National Training Center (NTC). Multiple replications were run, using different sensor performance standards, to evaluate the model's ability to convert reconnaissance into perceptions of the enemy's intent, and the use of a deterministic attrition algorithm in a stochastic model. A discussion of the results concludes with the requirement to conduct further testing of the course of action perception methodology, design more elaborate tactical rule sets for the employment of the reconnaissance assets and tbe reserve force, and ultimately, develop a more rigorous scenario that can be compared to actual NTC results.
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