Models for proliferation interdiction response analysis
Reed, Brian K.
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The proliferation of nuclear weapons poses a serious threat to the United States, its allies, and over-all world security. The United States seeks to dissuade or prevent new countries from acquiring nuclear weapons capabilities. This thesis constructs two models to aid decision makers in selecting strategies to interdict these proliferation efforts. The first, a "what-if" PERT/CPM model, provides an overall picture of the proliferation process. The graphical display is used to select activities to interdict, and to analyze the outcome of the choices. The second, an optimal interdiction model, selects the optimal activity ( ies) for interdiction subject to risk constraints. Several runs with different numbers of interdiction points were made to test the optimal interdiction model. These results are further analyzed with the aid of the PERT /CPM model. The models, when used together, prove to be useful in selecting the optimal activities to interdict in the proliferation process.
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