Application of an interactive computer model to analyze the distribution of U.S. Navy warfare specialists among generalist billets
Milch, Paul R.
Halwachs, Thomas E.
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This thesis demonstrates the application of a user-interactive personnel flow forecasting model, FORECASTER, in analyzing the distribution (billet-fill requirements) of U.S. Navy warfare specialists among generalist billets. The development and implementation of the model as used to analyze multiple communities is outlined in detail. Three basic scenarios are utilized to demonstrate the model's flexibility and sensitivity: (1) The 'Status-quo', or present, distribution: (2) alternative policies with regards to adjustments to tour length; and (3) alternative guidance pertaining to transition probabilities. The results of these analyses demonstrate FORECASTER as a viable tool by which the complexities of multiple personnel community management can be investigated and alternatives considered.
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