An analysis of mathematical models to improve counter-drug smuggling operations
Campos, Sylvester III
Royset, Johannes O.
MetadataShow full item record
The Joint Interagency Task Force South (JIATF South) serves as the center for counterillicit trafficking operations against Central and South American drug cartels. JIATF South has jurisdiction over an enormous area and has a limited number of search and interdiction assets. Thus, mathematical models and tools to improve the search planning process could provide an immense benefit. This thesis contributes to a multiinstitution effort to develop these models and tools. The goal is to provide enhanced situational awareness to operators about the likely location of smuggling targets and recommend search plans. The thesis combines a probability model and an optimization model into a user-friendly tool that operators and researchers can easily use. We also develop methods to convert the output of the probability model into inputs to the optimization model. This could be especially important if environmental factors play a significant role in the routes taken by drug smugglers. We examine how accurately this conversion algorithm reproduces the actual paths taken by smugglers. More importantly, we evaluate how well the search plan generated by the conversion algorithm performs. We find, in most cases, that the conversion algorithm provides excellent results; however, there are some situations where the conversion algorithm performs poorly.
Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited
Showing items related by title, author, creator and subject.
Menzies, Tim; Williams, Steve; Elrawas, Oussama; Baker, Daniel; Boehm, Barry; Hihn, Jairus; Lum, Karen; Madachy, Ray (2008);Most process models calibrate their internal settings using local data. Collecting this data is expensive, tedious, and often an incomplete process. Is it possible to make accurate process decisions without historical ...
Evangelista, Paul F.; Darken, Christian J.; Jungkunz, Patrick (2011);Representation of search and target acquisition (STA) in military models and simulations arguably abstracts the most critical aspects of combat. This research focuses on the search aspect of STA for the unaided human eye. ...
Chung, Timothy H.; Silvestrini, Rachel T. (2014);This article explores a probabilistic formulation for exhaustive search of a bounded area by a single searcher for a single static target. The searcher maintains an aggregate belief of the target’s presence or absence in ...