Value of forecaster in the loop
Harris, Michael J.
Harr, Patrick A.
Nuss, Wendell A.
MetadataShow full item record
Over the past 20 years, there have been many advancements in the process of weather. Specific contributions to improvements in the forecast process come from improvements in numerical model forecast guidance and the timely availability of many new observational data types. As numerical forecasts guidance improves, it has become important to document the value a human forecaster adds to the forecast process. Because of collateral duties and career requirements, United States Navy forecasters often find it difficult to become proficient at forecasting. In this study, a basic forecast process was used to identify the skill in forecasts of ceiling and visibility made by human forecasters and produced by a statistical modification to numerical model fields. Terminal Aerodrome Forecasts (TAF) were collected for eight military air stations and compared to the performance of the Localized Aviation Model Output Statistics Program (LAMP). Hit rates and critical success indices were used to identify forecast skill. Using various timelines and categorical partitions, all results showed that there were little to no statistical differences between the TAF and LAMP in 2013. Finally, a case study was examined to highlight the capability of probability forecasting as an improvement to the forecast process.
RightsThis publication is a work of the U.S. Government as defined in Title 17, United States Code, Section 101. Copyright protection is not available for this work in the United States.
Showing items related by title, author, creator and subject.
The Navy's Numerical Hurricane and Typhoon Forecast Scheme: Application to 1967 Atlantic Storm Data Renard, Robert J.; Levings, William H. (1969-10);Renard recently reported (Monthly Weather Revie:w, July 1968) on the development of a numerical scheme for predicting the motion of tropical storms for periods up to three days. An extension of the forecast scheme, as ...
The Extratropical Transition of Tropical Cyclones: Forecast Challenges, Current Understanding, and Future Directions Jones, Sarah C.; Harr, Patrick A.; Abraham, Jim; Bosart, Lance F.; Bowyer, Peter J.; Evans, Jenni L.; Hanley, Deborah E.; Hanstrum, Barry N.; Hart, Robert E.; Lalaurette, François; Sinclair, Mark R.; Smith, Roger K.; Thorncroft, Chris (2003-12);A significant number of tropical cyclones move into the midlatitudes and transform into extratropical cyclones. This process is generally referred to as extratropical transition (ET). During ET a cyclone frequently ...
Application of the Navy's numerical hurricane and typhoon forecast scheme to 1967 Atlantic tropical-storm data Renard, Robert Joseph (Monterey, California. Naval Postgraduate School, 1969-03-15); NPS-51RD9031ARenard recently reported on a numerical scheme for predicting the motion of tropical storms for intervals up to 72 hours. The forecast technique is applied in two steps. First, numerical geostrophic steering of the cyclone ...