A human error analysis and model of naval aviation maintenance related mishaps
Schmorrow, Dylan D.
Conner, George W.
Schmidt, John K.
Petho, Frank C.
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Naval Aviation is in the midst of a major transformation as it attempts to come to terms with the demands of maintaining operational readiness in the face of diminishing budgets and reduced manning. Diminishing operating and procurement budgets mean that Naval Aviation is for the most part "making do" with existing aircraft. Over the past decade, one in four Naval Aviation mishaps were partially attributable to maintenance error. The present operating environment underscores the need to address maintenance error and its causes. The current study accomplishes three things. First, it evaluates 470 Naval Aviation mishaps with distinct maintenance error correlates. Second, it categorizes those errors using a taxonomy based upon current organizational and psychological theories of human error. Third, it mathematically models the consequences of these errors and uses the models to (a) predict the .frequency with which maintenance-based mishaps will occur in the future and (b) approximate the potential cost savings from the reduction of each error type.
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