Optimal vaccination in a stochastic epidemic model of two non-interacting populations
Yuan, Edwin C.
Alderson, David L.
Carlson, Jean M.
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Developing robust, quantitative methods to optimize resource allocations in response to epidemics has the potential to save lives and minimize health care costs. In this paper, we develop and apply a computationally e cient algorithm that enables us to calculate the complete probability distribution for the nal epidemic size in a stochastic Susceptible-Infected-Recovered (SIR) model. Based on these results, we determine the optimal allocations of a limited quantity of vaccine between two non-interacting populations. We compare the stochastic solution to results obtained for the traditional, deterministic SIR model. For intermediate quantities of vaccine, the deterministic model is a poor estimate of the optimal strategy for the more realistic, stochastic case.
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