Understanding the current 30-year shipbuilding plan through three models

Abstract

The United States Navy is bound by federal law to annually submit a long-range plan for the construction of naval vessels. As the report represents a possible vision of the future fleet, there is much discussion on its contents and how and why the Navy settled on the numbers contained in the proposal. Viewing the plan as a decision reached by a government entity allows a thorough investigation of the matter utilizing Graham Allison’s approach from his work, Essence of Decision. Through the lenses of rational actor model, organizational behavior model, and government politics model, the Annual Long-Range Plan for Construction of Naval Vessels for FY2015 will be analyzed to better understand the requirements, organizational routines, major players, and special interests that ultimately result in a plan submitted to congress. Through this analysis, a better understanding of the processes, procedures and inner workings of the Navy will become apparent and show the FY2015 Long Range Plan is rather complex and beholden to many stakeholders, each wishing to exert influence over the outcome.