Forecasting workload for Defense Logistics Agency distribution
Chonko, Aaron W.
Heiliger, Padraic T.
Rudge, Travis W.
MetadataShow full item record
The Defense Logistics Agency (DLA) predicts issue and receipt workload for its distribution agency in order to maintain adequate staffing levels and set proper rates for customers. Inaccurate forecasts lead to inaccurate staffing, subsequently leading to inaccurate pricing. DLA’s current regression forecasting model is no longer adequate for predicting future workload for DLA Distribution. We explore multiple forecasting techniques and provide a methodology for selecting a model that is a viable and accurate alternative for DLA. Our methodology encompasses best-fit determination, a comparison of predictability through back-casting, and a sensitivity exercise to see reaction and stability of our selected models’ predictions. Finally, we compare our best performing model with the current regression model to see what would have been reported if our model had been used instead of the current model for recent Program Budget Review (PBR) cycles. Our results suggest that an auto-regressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model used with critical assessment and managerial judgment offers a viable alternative to the current model for predicting distribution workload.
MBA Professional Report
RightsThis publication is a work of the U.S. Government as defined in Title 17, United States Code, Section 101. Copyright protection is not available for this work in the United States.
Showing items related by title, author, creator and subject.
Alignment of organizational level workload and maintenance manning in the United States Navy F/A-18C community Allen, Mitchell R. (Monterey, California. Naval Postgraduate School, 2005-12);This research was conducted to examine the balance of workload and manning in the F/A-18C community. Data shows that current application of the Navy Standard at - sea workweek results in squadrons being overworked ashore ...
An analysis of the factors affecting the net operating result at Naval Aviation Depot Cherry Point, North Carolina Griffith, Scott M. (Monterey, California. Naval Postgraduate School, 2002-12);This thesis explains the current process involved in establishing stabilized rates for the Naval Aviation Depot (NADEP) Cherry Point, North Carolina. Existing data were examined to aid in understanding the process for ...
Barker, Steven M. (Monterey, California. Naval Postgraduate School, 1991-09);The United States Coast Guard maintains four communication stations (COMMSTAs) with the responsibility of providing communication services throughout the Pacific Ocean maritime region. A study of the functions performed ...