USN manpower determination decision making: a case study using imprint pro to validate the LCS core crew manning solution

Abstract

This thesis was a case study to validate the use of IMPRINT Pro Forces model simulations and FAST model predictions for the Littoral Combat Ship (LCS) manpower requirements. Input data were derived from data cards collected by the Center for Naval Analysis during an underway with LCS 1 Freedom in Fall 2013 and from information shared by the LCS Program Office, San Diego. A survey was administered to the current crewmembers of the USS Independence (LCS 2) to assess the crew’s perception of the adequacy of current manning concepts and to further validate the IMPRINT and FAST model outputs. Using IMPRINT Pro Forces SOFtware, three different LCS core crew sizes were modeled to assess how each was able to handle day-to-day operations, maintenance, and emergencies during a (notional) operational underway. As crew sizes are reduced, individual performance becomes increasingly important. Multiple watch schedules were modeled using the FAST SOFtware tool, which uses the SAFTE model to predict individual cognitive effectiveness levels using a simulated work and sleep schedules. Using the IMPRINT Pro Forces modeling tool, this study found measurable and significant differences in performance among the three core crew sizes as assessed by ANOVA and Tukey tests. The FAST results showed conclusively that individual performance is significantly affected by the watch rotation a sailor stands. Although this thesis focused on the crew of the LCS, the modeling approach and analytical process can be expanded and applied to a wide range of ships and departments.