Influence operations in insurgencies: identifying framing strategies for special warfare

Abstract

As the United States continues to extend its global reach while simultaneously reducing the size of its military force, unconventional methods must be employed in order to achieve U.S. national objectives. Further, as the global environment consists of increased conflict involving non-state actors and multinational insurgencies, a greater understanding of the motives, grievances, and methods employed to express those motives is required. The purpose of this research is to assess quantitatively whether there is a significant relationship between motivation of an insurgent group, and the effectiveness of the insurgency. To that end, this research utilizes existing databases and open-source information, limiting the parameters to conflicts between non-state actors versus state actors. This thesis begins by examining the existing literature in order to understand the rise of movements and violence, particularly in the Middle East and North Africa. The research further attempts to determine whether methods employed by an insurgent group or the introduction of an external actor, such as a foreign state or non-governmental organization, have an impact on the likelihood of success.