Thermodynamic and kinematic flow characteristics of some developing and non-developing disturbances in predict
Sauer, William A.,II
Montgomery, Michael T.
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The development of tropical disturbances into tropical cyclones is not well understood. The lack of data on developing and non-developing tropical disturbances makes theoretical models difficult to test empirically. This thesis will investigate thermodynamic parameters and kinematic flow structures found in three tropical disturbances investigated in the Pre-Depression Investigation of Cloud-Systems in the Tropics (PREDICT) Experiment. Two of the tropical disturbances did not develop into tropical storms, and one of the tropical disturbances was immediately classified as a tropical storm after the first research flight was conducted on the system. The presence of significant convective available potential energy (CAPE) and low convective inhibition (CIN) has been universally found in the vicinity of the tropical disturbances studied in this thesis and other recent PREDICT studies, such as Observations of the Convective Environment in Developing and Non-Developing Tropical Disturbances by Roger K. Smith and Michael T. Montgomery published in 2012 by the Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society. The main difference between developing and non-developing tropical disturbances appears to lie with the kinematic flow boundary structure and thermodynamic properties hypothesized in the marsupial paradigm.
RightsThis publication is a work of the U.S. Government as defined in Title 17, United States Code, Section 101. Copyright protection is not available for this work in the United States.
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Rutherford, Blake; Dunkerton, Timothy; Montgomery, Michael; Braun, Scott (Copernicus Publications on behalf of the European Geosciences Union, 2017-09-04);The interaction of a tropical disturbance with its environment is thought to play an important role in whether a disturbance will develop or not. Most developing disturbances are somewhat protected from the intrusion of ...
Rutherford, B.; Boothe, M.A.; Dunkerton, T.J.; Montgomery, M.T. (RMetS, 2018-01);The goal of this study is to characterize the dynamics and structure of tropical cyclone formation from global model analyses to determine thresholds marking the various stages of development which can be computed from the ...
Rutherford, B.; Dunkerton, T.J.; Montgomery, M.T. (Royal Meteorological Society, 2015-10);Tracking pre-genesis tropical cyclones is important for earlier detection of developing systems as well as targeting potential locations for dropsondes in field experiments. The use of a reference frame moving with the ...