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dc.contributor.advisorWarren, Camber
dc.contributor.authorSikorski, Timothy A.
dc.dateDec-14
dc.date.accessioned2015-02-18T00:18:14Z
dc.date.available2015-02-18T00:18:14Z
dc.date.issued2014-12
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/10945/44667
dc.description.abstractAl-Shabaab poses a persistent threat in the Horn of Africa, able to mount spectacular transnational attacks such as the siege on the Westgate Mall in Nairobi, Kenya in 2013 and twin suicide bombings in Kampala, Uganda in 2010. Particularly worrying for Western governments is the group’s merger with al-Qaeda, combined with its ability to recruit fighters from Europe and North America. al-Shabaab’s extensive use of propaganda to gain recruits and external support has been well documented. Most studies of al-Shabaab’s propaganda activities are centered on techniques, mediums and themes, with little focus on effectiveness. This study seeks to determine the effectiveness of al-Shabaab’s propaganda by quantitatively evaluating the relationship between propaganda and behaviors linked to the strategic effects sought by al-Shabaab. Statistical analysis is used to determine the significant relationships between al-Shabaab propaganda, target audience behaviors, and desired effects. Results demonstrate that al-Shabaab’s propaganda is statistically ineffective at achieving the desired effect. This research recommends a strategy to counter al-Shabaab propaganda focused on disruption of al-Shabaab’s message dissemination, providing a credible alternative to the group’s propaganda, and highlighting discrepancies between al-Shabaab’s propaganda and the group’s actions.en_US
dc.description.urihttp://archive.org/details/airwavesndmicrob1094544667
dc.publisherMonterey, California: Naval Postgraduate Schoolen_US
dc.rightsThis publication is a work of the U.S. Government as defined in Title 17, United States Code, Section 101. Copyright protection is not available for this work in the United States.en_US
dc.titleAirwaves and microblogs: a statistical analysis of al-Shabaab’s propaganda effectivenessen_US
dc.typeThesisen_US
dc.contributor.secondreaderRobinson, Glenn E.
dc.contributor.departmentDefense Analysis (DA)
dc.subject.authorAl-Shabaaben_US
dc.subject.authorAl-Qaedaen_US
dc.subject.authorSomaliaen_US
dc.subject.authorTransitional Federal Governmenten_US
dc.subject.authorAfrican Unison Mission to Somaliaen_US
dc.subject.authorWestgateen_US
dc.subject.authorKismayoen_US
dc.subject.authorpropagandaen_US
dc.subject.authorjihaden_US
dc.subject.authorideologyen_US
dc.subject.authordata analysisen_US
dc.subject.authorstatistical analysisen_US
dc.subject.authorcounterterrorismen_US
dc.subject.authorcounter violent extremist messagingen_US
dc.subject.authoreffectivenessen_US
dc.subject.authorinformation operationsen_US
dc.subject.authorsocial mediaen_US
dc.subject.authorRadio Andalusen_US
dc.subject.authorTwitteren_US
dc.description.serviceMajor, United States Armyen_US
etd.thesisdegree.nameMaster of Science in Defense Analysisen_US
etd.thesisdegree.levelMastersen_US
etd.thesisdegree.disciplineDefense Analysisen_US
etd.thesisdegree.grantorNaval Postgraduate Schoolen_US
dc.description.distributionstatementApproved for public release; distribution is unlimited.


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