Meteorological and model traits knowledge bases for North Indian Ocean tropical cyclones
Spollen, Rachael A.
Elsberry, Russell L.
Harr, Patrick A.
Boothe, Mark A.
MetadataShow full item record
These tropical cyclone Meteorology and Model Traits Knowledge Bases for the North Indian Ocean (NIO) complete the global coverage required for application of the Systematic Approach to tropical cyclone track forecasting introduced by Carr and Elsberry (1994). The database for the NIO Meteorological Knowledge Base includes 64 storms during 1991-2001. All of the 656 cases could be classified in three common synoptic patterns that have been found to apply in other basins, with no unique patterns. About 75% of the cases are in the standard pattern. This preliminary Model Traits Knowledge Base includes only eight tropical cyclones during 2000-2001. The model forecast track errors are relatively small, and only 33%, 62%, and 70% of the Navy global, regional, and UK Meteorological Office models, respectively, exceed 150 n mi at 72 h. Only 12 cases of large (> 225 n mi at 72 h) track forecast errors occur. Half of these large-error cases are associated with erroneous model predictions in the midlatitudes. One third of the large errors originate from improper model treatments of the tropical circulations, and the remaining two cases originate from erroneous initial cyclone positions. Since these are the same error sources as in other basins, the Systematic Approach has global application.
Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited
Showing items related by title, author, creator and subject.
Springer, Cory A. (Monterey, California. Naval Postgraduate School, 1994-06);The short term teleconnections arising from an individual tropical cyclone in the western Pacific were examined using a global operational data assimilation system and forecast model. In the ...
Thermodynamic and kinematic flow characteristics of some developing and non-developing disturbances in predict Sauer, William A.,II (Monterey, California: Naval Postgraduate School, 2014-12);The development of tropical disturbances into tropical cyclones is not well understood. The lack of data on developing and non-developing tropical disturbances makes theoretical models difficult to test empirically. This ...
Kilroy, Gerard (Monterey, California; Naval Postgraduate School, 2014-03-10);Idealized numerical model experiments are presented to investigate the convective generation of vertical vorticity in a tropical depression. The calculations are motivated by observations made during the recent PREDICT ...