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dc.contributor.authorSanchez, Susan
dc.contributor.authorMorse, Matthew M.
dc.contributor.authorUpton, Stephen C.
dc.contributor.authorMcDonald, Mary L.
dc.contributor.authorNussbaum, Daniel A.
dc.date.accessioned2015-04-29T20:01:36Z
dc.date.available2015-04-29T20:01:36Z
dc.date.issued2014-07-14
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/10945/45068
dc.descriptionAcquisition Research Program Sponsored Report Seriesen_US
dc.descriptionAnnual Acquisition Research Symposium.en_US
dc.description.abstractLife Cycle Cost (LCC) assessments are of interest during the design phase for new systems. These often involve costs that must be estimated from a variety of different sub-models, including cost models constructed from historical data, forecast models that attempt to predict future economic conditions, and economy-of-scale models that impact production schedules, and more. When these disparate models are put together to obtain an overall cost model, many of these individual sources of uncertainty end up being aggregated or ignored. Consequently, the cost estimates may not provide program managers with appropriate assessments of the risk and overall variability of the new systems. We propose a structured approach for obtaining robust LCC estimates by taking into account a broad set of environmental noise conditions. This will enable program managers to better understand the uncertainty in their overall estimates, and to identify any decision factor combinations that result in both low costs and low cost variability. This may provide guidance on which of the many potential uncertainty sources require close monitoring, and which can safely be disregarded. We illustrate this approach with a model the USMC is evaluating for use in cost/benefit analysis of alternative energy systems.en_US
dc.description.sponsorshipThis research was supported in part by grants from the NPS Naval Postgraduate School Acquisition Research Program and the Marine Corps Expeditionary Energy Office.en_US
dc.rightsThis publication is a work of the U.S. Government as defined in Title 17, United States Code, Section 101. Copyright protection is not available for this work in the United States.en_US
dc.titleA Robust Design Approach to Cost Estimation: Solar Energy for Marine Corps Expeditionary Operationsen_US
dc.typeTechnical Reporten_US
dc.contributor.departmentGraduate School of Business & Public Policy (GSBPP)
dc.subject.authorlife cycle cost (LCC)en_US
dc.subject.authormodelingen_US
dc.subject.authorcost estimatingen_US
dc.identifier.npsreportNPS-CE-14-177
dc.description.distributionstatementApproved for public release; distribution is unlimited.


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