Long-range atmosphere-ocean forecasting in support of undersea warfare operations in the western north Pacific
Heidt, Sarah L.
Stone, Rebecca E.
MetadataShow full item record
Skillful long-range forecasts of acoustic variables have the potential to be very useful in planning Navy undersea warfare operations. Our study assessed the potential to predict sonic layer depth (SLD) in the western north Pacific at lead times of one to several months. We conducted correlations between SLD and remote climate system variables, and identified a high potential for skillful long-range forecasts of SLD in the western north Pacific using sea surface temperature in equatorial and south Pacific as predictors. We used tercile matching and composite analysis forecast (CAF) methods to develop hindcasts and forecasts of SLD based on SST predictors at lead times of one to four months. Our forecast verification metrics show that the resulting long lead probabilistic forecasts are a clear improvement over presently available long term mean climatology products. We also used conditional compositing techniques to create mean and environmental threshold probability products based on the long lead forecasts. Our results indicate that the support of USW operations by the Navy meteorology and oceanography community could be improved by the use of advanced climate data sets, climate analysis, and long-range forecasting methods.
Approved for public release, distribution unlimited
Showing items related by title, author, creator and subject.
A statistical-dynamical approach to intraseasonal prediction of tropical cyclogenesis in the western North Pacific Mundhenk, Bryan D. (Monterey, California. Naval Postgraduate School, 2009-03);We have developed a combined statistical-dynamical prediction scheme to predict the probability of tropical cyclone (TC) formation at daily, 2.5Â° horizontal resolution across the western North Pacific at intraseasonal ...
Vines, Gary M. (Monterey, California. Naval Postgraduate School, 2017-12);The Asian southwest monsoon (SWM) east of the Horn of Africa (HOA) is important in planning and conducting maritime operations in this region. Skillful subseasonal to seasonal (S2S) forecasts of the SWM onset are needed ...
Darnell, Karen M. (Monterey, California. Naval Postgraduate School, 2006-03);Accurate weather forecasts are vital to air combat operations. Quantitative assessments of forecasts and their operational impacts are essential to improving weather support for war fighters. We adapted an existing U.S. ...