Selection for career course and impact on retention of Brazilian Air Force officers

Abstract

This research examines the effect of a particular non-monetary incentive on the retention of active duty Brazilian Air Force colonels. The objective is to provide evidence to support the Brazilian Air Force Manpower decision makers in establishing policies regarding the selection of colonels for a career course. The characteristics of the incentives and the links to Expectancy Theory were reviewed to frame the hypotheses. Using two sources of data from the Brazilian Air Force manpower databanks, logit regressions and descriptive statistics were analyzed to check the validity of the hypothesis and found overall that the selection of colonel for a career course (defined in Brazilian law as prerequisite for promotion) is strongly correlated with retention probability. Furthermore, the interaction between the selection for the course and the information the military receives from the performance appraisal system plays a significant role in retirement decisions.