Scoping Future Nuclear Proliferation Risks: Emerging Trends in Sociocultural Modeling and Analysis

Abstract

Objective: To anticipate the likelihood of successful nuclear acquisition, one must identify key constituencies within a polity of concern and assess the internal sociocultural drivers that shape thinking and decision-making on WMD/WME issues. This project seeks to strengthen and refine sociocultural analytic frameworks designed to anticipate WMD aspirants and isolate points of leverage within those national communities in order to disrupt or shift weapons aspirations.