A systems approach to modeling drivers of conflict and convergence in the Asia-Pacific region in the next 5-25 years
Whitcomb, Clifford A.
Beery, Paul T.
Parker, Gary W.
MetadataShow full item record
This project is part of a Strategic Multi-Layer Assessment (SMA) for the U.S. Pacific Command (PACOM). This SMA provides planning support for complex operational imperatives requiring multi-agency, multi-disciplinary solutions that are not currently within core PACOM competencies. The Naval Postgraduate School’s (NPS) contribution overcomes the current conceptualization limitations by using a Systems Dynamics (SD) viewpoint to examine U.S.–China relations. This approach employs systems thinking and systems dynamics methodologies to analyze the policy structures of major issues of concern common to U.S. and China which result in non-linear and dynamic behavior over time. The SD model developed is composed of four sectors of common concern: energy demand and resources, demographics and stability, economics, and military actions. These sector models are used to model tension between the U.S. and China over the next 25 years. Tension was chosen as an underlying surrogate to overall U.S.–China relations. A simulation tool was developed assist policy makers in better understanding how the system's variables are related, how they influence one another, and how they are influenced by the system's external environment. The simulation tool also supports decision / policy making by allowing analysts to explore the effects of these variables on potential futures.
Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited.
Showing items related by title, author, creator and subject.
Redmond, Patrick J. (Monterey, California. Naval Postgraduate School, 2007-03);The next generation of military capabilities will hinge on systems of systems technologies, entailing the integration of numerous large scale systems into a complex system of systems whose capability exceeds the capabilities ...
Big Data and Deep Learning for Defense Acquisition Visibility Environment (DAVE)—Developing NPS Student Thesis Research Zhao, Ying (2017-12-21); NPS-AM-18-012The U.S. Department of Defense (DoD) acquisition process is extremely complex. There are three key processes that must work in concert to deliver capabilities: determining warfighters’ requirements and needs, planning the ...
Blanco, Hilda (2008-06);Prioritizing is a fundamental task in capital facilities planning and finance. The protection of critical infrastructure systems, essential systems that underpin our society’s “national defense, economic prosperity and ...