Forecasting the motion of tropical cyclones using a numerically derived steering current and its bias
Renard, Robert J.
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The vector motion of severe tropical cyclones (including storm, hurricane/typhoon stages) is forecasted by a numerical scheme which involves two steps: a. Numerical gcostrophic steering of the center of the cyclone using the U.S. Navy Fleet Numerical Weather Facility’s (FN W F) operationally produced smoothed isobaric height fields, called SR. The tropical perturbations arc steered in I-hr. time steps up to 72 hr., using winds derived from the SR analysis dated closest to warning time. SR 500 mb. in the Pacific and SR 700 mb. in the Atlantic gave the most accurate forecasts on tests of 10 northwest Pacific typhoons and all five north Atlantic tropical storms and hurricanes in the period Aug. 15-Nov. 1, 1965. Forecasts were made twice daily, 0600 and 1800 GMT, during this period using the best track information...
Monthly Weather Review, Vol. 96, No. 7, pp. 453-469, July 1968.
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