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dc.contributor.authorJones, Sarah C.
dc.contributor.authorHarr, Patrick A.
dc.contributor.authorAbraham, Jim
dc.contributor.authorBosart, Lance F.
dc.contributor.authorBowyer, Peter J.
dc.contributor.authorEvans, Jenni L.
dc.contributor.authorHanley, Deborah E.
dc.contributor.authorHanstrum, Barry N.
dc.contributor.authorHart, Robert E.
dc.contributor.authorLalaurette, François
dc.contributor.authorSinclair, Mark R.
dc.contributor.authorSmith, Roger K.
dc.contributor.authorThorncroft, Chris
dc.date.accessioned2015-07-31T18:14:15Z
dc.date.available2015-07-31T18:14:15Z
dc.date.issued2003-12
dc.identifier.citationWeather and Forecasting, Volume 18, pp. 1052-1092, December 2003.en_US
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/10945/45704
dc.description.abstractA significant number of tropical cyclones move into the midlatitudes and transform into extratropical cyclones. This process is generally referred to as extratropical transition (ET). During ET a cyclone frequently produces intense rainfall and strong winds and has increased forward motion, so that such systems pose a serious threat to land and maritime activities. Changes in the structure of a system as it evolves from a tropical to an extratropical cyclone during ET necessitate changes in forecast strategies. In this paper a brief climatology of ET is given and the challenges associated with forecasting extratropical transition are described in terms of the forecast variables (track, intensity, surface winds, precipitation) and their impacts (flooding, bush fires, ocean response). The problems associated with the numerical prediction of ET are discussed. A comprehensive review of the current understanding of the processes involved in ET is presented. Classifications of extratropical transition are described and potential vorticity thinking is presented as an aid to understanding ET. Further sections discuss the interaction between a tropical cyclone and the midlatitude environment, the role of latent heat release, convection and the underlying surface in ET, the structural changes due to frontogenesis, the mechanisms responsible for precipitation, and the energy budget during ET. Finally, a summary of the future directions for research into ET is given.en_US
dc.description.sponsorshipThis paper arose from the First International Workshop on the Extratropical Transition of Tropical Cyclones, held in Kaufbeuren, Germany, in May 1999. The workshop was generously supported by the World Meteorological Organization and the U.S. Office of Naval Research.en_US
dc.rightsThis publication is a work of the U.S. Government as defined in Title 17, United States Code, Section 101. As such, it is in the public domain, and under the provisions of Title 17, United States Code, Section 105, may not be copyrighted.en_US
dc.titleThe Extratropical Transition of Tropical Cyclones: Forecast Challenges, Current Understanding, and Future Directionsen_US
dc.typeArticleen_US
dc.contributor.departmentMeteorologyen_US


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