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Forecasting Tropical Cyclone Motion over the Northeastem Pacific Ocean by an Analog Scheme

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IconForecasting_Tropical_1520-0493(1975)103_0674_FTCMOT_2.0.CO;2.pdf (743.4Kb)
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Author
Jarrell, J.D.
Mauck, C.J.
Renard, R.J.
Date
1975-08
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Abstract
The Navy's EPANALOG (Northeastern Pacifi.c Analog Tropical Cyclone Tracker) f~recast prog~am is introduced. EP ANALOG selects analog tropical cyclones from a 25-year northeastern Pa~fi.c Ocean history. The selected analog tracks, statistically adjusted for position, vector motio~, an? date ~erences between them and the recent history of the tropical cyclone being forecast, are composited mto a smgle forecast track. Verifications of EPANALOG forecasts to 96 h, as initiated from best-track positions, are shown for randomly selected historical cases with a Monte Carlo simulation of initial position inaccuracies, as well as for forecasts generated from 1973 operational cyclone positions. The latter are intercompared with a homogeneous set of objective persistence and MOHATT forecasts as well as subjective OFFICIAL forecasts for. the 24, 48, and 72 h intervals. The 1973 EPANALOG accuracy is shown to generally excel that of the existent techniques for all forecast intervals tested.
Description
The article of record as published may be found at http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/1520-0493(1975)103<0674:FTCMOT>2.0.CO;2
URI
http://hdl.handle.net/10945/45766
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    The Navy's Analog Scheme for Forecasting Tropical Cyclone Motion over the Northeastern Pacific Ocean 

    Jarrell, Jerry D.; Mauck, Charles J.; Renard, Robert J. (Monterey, California. Naval Postgraduate School, 1975-03); Technical Paper No. 6-75
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    The NEPHAT (Northeastern Pacific Hurricane Analog Tracker) Forecast Program is developed and introduced. NEPHAT selects analog tropical cyclones from 25-year Northeastern Pacific Ocean history. Each selected analog track ...
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