Forecasting Tropical Cyclone Motion over the Northeastem Pacific Ocean by an Analog Scheme
Abstract
The Navy's EPANALOG (Northeastern Pacifi.c Analog Tropical Cyclone Tracker) f~recast prog~am is
introduced. EP ANALOG selects analog tropical cyclones from a 25-year northeastern Pa~fi.c Ocean history.
The selected analog tracks, statistically adjusted for position, vector motio~, an? date ~erences between
them and the recent history of the tropical cyclone being forecast, are composited mto a smgle forecast track.
Verifications of EPANALOG forecasts to 96 h, as initiated from best-track positions, are shown for randomly
selected historical cases with a Monte Carlo simulation of initial position inaccuracies, as well as for forecasts
generated from 1973 operational cyclone positions. The latter are intercompared with a homogeneous set
of objective persistence and MOHATT forecasts as well as subjective OFFICIAL forecasts for. the 24, 48,
and 72 h intervals. The 1973 EPANALOG accuracy is shown to generally excel that of the existent techniques
for all forecast intervals tested.
Description
The article of record as published may be found at http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/1520-0493(1975)103<0674:FTCMOT>2.0.CO;2
Collections
Related items
Showing items related by title, author, creator and subject.
-
The Navy's Analog Scheme for Forecasting Tropical Cyclone Motion over the Northeastern Pacific Ocean
Jarrell, Jerry D.; Mauck, Charles J.; Renard, Robert J. (Monterey, California. Naval Postgraduate School, 1975-03); Technical Paper No. 6-75The Navy's EPANALOG (Northeastern Pacific Analog Tropical Cyclone Tracker) forecast program is introduced. EPANALOG selects analog tropical cyclones from a 25-year Northeastern Pacific Ocean history. The selected analog ... -
Comparison of western North Pacific Tropical Cyclone aids using storm-related and synoptic parameters.
Jones, Henry (1986-12);The performance of four western North Pacific Ocean objective aids (One-way influence Tropical Cyclone Model-OTCM; Recurver analog-REC; Total analog-TOTL; and 500 mb steering-CY50) is evaluated using mean forecast error ... -
Forecasting Northeastern Pacific tropical cyclone tracks using an analog scheme.
Mauck, Charles Joel III (Monterey, California. Naval Postgraduate School, 1974-09);The NEPHAT (Northeastern Pacific Hurricane Analog Tracker) Forecast Program is developed and introduced. NEPHAT selects analog tropical cyclones from 25-year Northeastern Pacific Ocean history. Each selected analog track ...